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 February 8, 2010, 4:00 pm EST — Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down 9.45 to 1056.74, as trading volume on the two primary stock exchanges was severely lacking the totals from Friday’s session suggesting a major reversal from the fund and institutional participation, experienced last week. Without the “big players” this market can drop 25% from here. (Two stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume came to 1.1 billion shares compared with 1.6 billion shares Friday.) However, don’t panic, as Dartline has been saying — “Let the market come to you.” — remains the favor of the moment. Keep you eye on what Stocksmirf suggests, as today, BTD portfolio showed a profit. Are you ready? … Mounting debt problems in several weaker European economies including Greece, Portugal and Spain have raised new questions about the health of the global financial system. Now maybe you understanding what Helicopter Bernanke kept interests at zero? … Clearly, Greece itself is nothing, except to underscore the continual contagion that has been “painted over” with the spin of the century — Expect rising debt loads in Europe to cascade into other parts of the world’s economy, which was started by the United States and accelerate here for the post Lehman – Part II – Panic. Don’t blame the Chinese — but the financial media and Obama Nation that has all believing the Stockville is safe and the only place to park you money. All the noise about the billions on the sidelines waiting to jump in is still being talking up, etc. …
 Granted, corporate earnings look good, but there is more to the allusion. Three out of four of the companies in the S&P 500 index that have reported results for the fourth quarter have posted stronger sales and profit numbers than analysts forecast. But look below the surface and you’ll see “cooked books” “misleading accounting practices” and “upside adjustments to inventories” just to name a few. All the fancy tricks banks used to make their numbers look good are now used by the rest of the bunch. … This weekend’s Group of Seven meeting did not lead to concrete action to tackle the sovereign debt problems of euro zone countries such as Greece, Portugal and Spain. European ministers told counterparts at the meeting they would ensure Greece sticks to its budget-cutting plan. Dartline believes more was needed to reassure markets euro zone debt problems would not upset global economic recovery. A Greek public sector union warned of further strikes to fight austerity measures, prompting an increase in the cost of insuring Greece’s sovereign debt. Greek government bond yield spreads over German benchmarks also rose, while the single European currency has shed nearly 10 percent from a 15-month high of $1.5145 hit in late November over growing fears Portugal and Spain could face the same kind of fiscal problems Greece is suffering. As long as EMU fears still loom and there is no strong signal from EU authorities that they will do something to tackle the situation in Greece, Spain and Portugal then euro downside potential will remain and world global; markets will continue to suffer. Hello! Is anyone listening?
February 8, 2010, 7:00 am EST   —The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures down 1.40 to 1058.40, as traders remain concerned that some European countries might not be able to rein in mounting debt. Stocks have also been hurt in recent weeks by China’s plans to limit economic growth and the U.S. government’s proposed rules to restrict trading by large financial institutions. All of those concerns have investors on edge about whether the global economy can recover strongly in the coming months. Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei stock average fell 1.1 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2 percent, Germany’s DAX index gained 0.4 percent, and France’s CAC-40 rose 0.2 percent. The S&P 500 ended the week down 0.7 percent. It was the first time since March that the index has fallen four straight weeks. Stocks had rallied for 10 months after hitting 12-year lows last March on hopes of a robust rebound. Indeed, the recent troubles demonstrate a recovery might not be happening as fast as investors had hoped. … Quiet week in terms of economic reports that could lend further support to the strength or weakness of the economic recovery. The weekly unemployment report, due out Thursday, will be among the most closely watched reports. Economists predict the number of workers filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell last week to 465,000 from 480,000.High unemployment remains one of the biggest obstacles to an economic recovery. However, on Friday, the Labor Department said the unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent in January from 10 percent a month earlier. Consumer spending also remains a problem as it accounts for more than two-thirds of all economic activity. The Commerce Department is expected to say retail sales rose 0.3 percent last month after falling 0.3 percent a month earlier. … Meanwhile, bond prices fell Monday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.59 percent from 3.57 percent late Friday. The dollar mostly fell against other major currencies, while gold prices rose. …
… Change near term resistance to 1095.40, while near term S&P 500 tests of 200 ema at 1046.20 will determine direction. A close above 1046.20 is critical to insure upside bias. However, a breakdown would indicate downward move to 991.50. The stock market lost 0.7% last week in volatile trade with selling driven by fears regarding the fiscal situation of several European countries, China tightening its monetary policy and the U.S. employment situation. A large number of companies reported mostly better-than-expected earnings, though their results had a relatively muted impact on trade as investors focused on macro issues. In the end, eight of the 10 sectors fell, though overall losses were contained thanks to some solid gains early in the week and a rebound in late trade on Friday.
February 5, 2010, 4:00 pm EST — Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed up 3.08 to 1066.19, even as the index registered its fourth straight weekly of declines. FEAR RULES, while the market staged a late day rally suggests convergence of ideas. Indeed, the wide trading came amid the latest signs that several weak European governments will have trouble getting their massive deficits under control. Concurrently, the Labor Department offered the “spin of the week” — the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in January to 9.7 percent from 10 percent, even though Stockville expected an uptick. Employers cut 20,000 jobs, more than the 10,000 Dartline expected. The two numbers are calculated from different surveys to give the Obama Nation report the look of “book cooking” and misinformation. Furthermore, the Labor Department revised some of its past statistics lower, painting a grimmer picture about how bad the economy was hurt during the recession. The economy has shed 8.4 million jobs since the downturn began in December 2007, compared with a previous estimate of 7.2 million. December job cuts were also revised for the worse. In the final month of 2009, employers cut 150,000 jobs, not the 85,000 previously reported.The jobs report came as more troubling news emerged in Europe that Portugal and other weak economies were falling behind in their efforts to control their deficits. Portugal’s opposition parties defeated a government austerity plan Friday and passed their own bill allowing the country’s autonomous regions to rack up even more debt. That raised new questions about European countries’ ability to control their swollen budget deficits, which are undermining faith in the region’s euro currency. Greece and Spain are also grappling with massive budget deficits. The worries about Europe are another bullet point for investors who for weeks have been concerned about China’s efforts to keep growth in check as well as plans in Washington to place more restrictions on big banks. … The Federal Reserve also said during afternoon trading that consumers borrowed less for an 11th straight month in December, but that total borrowing fell far less than expected. The drop of $1.8 billion was less than the decline of $9 billion analysts had expected. That fueled hopes that consumer spending will increase. …
Benchmark crude for March delivery on Friday lost $1.95, nearly 3 percent, to settle at $71.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil plunged as low as $69.50 a barrel earlier in the day. That’s the cheapest oil has been since Dec. 15. Stronger dollar and persistent doubts about the health of the global economy caused the weakness. Crude prices have now dropped more than 14 percent since cresting at a 15-month high of $83.18 a barrel on Jan. 6. Energy prices were propped up earlier in the year by predictions that China, India and other developing nations would aggressively boost petroleum imports to feed their growing economies. But China has since taken steps to control risky bank lending and to cool off its economy. Meanwhile, Greece, Portugal and Spain are dealing with massive budget deficits, and their continued troubles helped push the euro lower Friday. A two-day jump in prices earlier in the week evaporated as the dollar surged against the euro. Analysts said they also suspected investors who had snapped up oil contracts changed their minds and were trying to get rid of them fast, before the weekend. “It’s quite obvious that someone blew up” in their oil investments, analyst and trader Stephen Schork said. “I’m not sure who it is, but someone is bleeding right now.” The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus other major currencies, jumped Friday to its highest level since July. Oil, which is priced in U.S. currency, tends to fall when the dollar strengthens and makes barrels more expensive for holders of foreign money. Add the fact that Americans are burning much less fuel than previous years and you have the perfect excuse to sell the blank stuff. The Energy Information Administration said this week that U.S. petroleum consumption has dropped for four straight weeks. “There’s a lot of oil sloshing around out there,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates. “If I were to give a fair price for oil it would be closer to $60″ a barrel. In London, Brent crude gave up $2.54 to settle at $69.59 on the ICE futures exchange.
February 5, 2010, 7:30 am EST … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures down 7.10 to 1054.20, as traders want a big hug after yesterday’s grim Labor Department report that first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose for the fourth time in five weeks. Meanwhile — today’s the day. The Labor Department’s monthly employment report, due at 8:30 a.m. EST., will determine if fourth-quarter growth has carried into the new year. High unemployment — the jobless rate was 10 percent in December — has been the biggest obstacle to a strong, sustained recovery. Dartline projects employers added 10,000 jobs last month, not the 5,000 predicted by economists, while unemployment remains even at 10 percent. … Ahead of the opening bell, the other focus will be on three members of the euro currency bloc — Greece, Spain and Portugal — which have trouble tightening budget controls to manage mounting deficits. The concern are the events will derail a recovery in Europe. Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 1.7 percent, Germany’s DAX index dropped 1.4 percent, and France’s CAC-40 tumbled 2.1 percent. gold prices fell. Oil dropped 3 cents to $73.11 a barrel in premarket electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while The dollar strengthened and Treasury bond prices rose. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.59 percent from 3.61 percent late Thursday. …
… Keep near term resistance at 1115.49 as near term resistance and support at 1080.50. Take advantage of recent declines by entrancing a prudent, long side bias.
February 4, 2010, 4:00 pm EST … Closing Thoughts .. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down 34.18 to 1063.11, as bad news, including rising debt levels in European nations and an unexpected jump in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits, had traders jumping from buildings. The drop was similar to stumbles the market began having in mid-January. Stocks fell then in response to China’s attempts to curb its overheated growth. Those moves raised fears that the other world economies could suffer as a result. The pullback in stocks worsened as leaders in Washington said they would impose tighter regulations on U.S. banks. U.S. trading also was affected by European markets, which dropped on concerns about onerous debt levels in countries including Greece, Spain and Portugal. The euro hit a seven-month low against the dollar on the news. The rising dollar hurt demand for commodities, which are priced in dollars and become more expensive to foreign buyers when the dollar climbs. Britain’s FTSE 100 dropped 2.2 percent, Germany’s DAX index slid 2.5 percent, and France’s CAC-40 lost 2.8 percent. Japan’s Nikkei stock average fell 0.5 percent. … The Labor Department said Thursday that claims for unemployment benefits rose by 8,000 to 480,000 last week. The news disappointed investors who had hoped for a drop. It was the fourth increase in the past five weeks. The jobless claims numbers chilled expectations that the government’s January jobs report, due Friday, would show that employers added workers in the first month of the year. Analysts currently expect Friday report to show that employers added 5,000 jobs in January. The government is also expected to report that the unemployment rate ticked up to 10.1 percent from 10 percent. … Gold futures fell sharply along with other metals and commodities, as concerns about economic growth and debt woes in Europe fueled a rally in the dollar. Gold for April delivery slumped $49, or 4.4%, to finish at $1,063 an ounce at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Among other metals, copper for March delivery fell 9.3 cents, or 3.1%, to end at $2.88 a pound. .. The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index jumped 17 percent. An increase in the VIX, which is known as the market’s fear gauge, is a sign that investors predict more big moves in stocks.
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