Dartline™ First Look – morning directional planner

November 6, 2009, 6:30 am … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures are up .60 to 1063.10, while in Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 10.30 points, or 0.2 percent, at 5,135.94 while Germany’s DAX rose 4.95 points, or 0.1 percent, to 5,485.87. The CAC-40 in France was 1.78 point, or 0.1 percent, higher at 3,710.51. The gains in Europe were relatively subdued compared with the performance in Asia earlier in the wake of Thursday’s big advance on Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average rose 0.7 percent to 9,789.35 and Hong Kong’s index gained 1.6 percent to 21829.72. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea’s benchmark rose 1.3 percent while Australia’s main index jumped nearly 2 percent as the central bank more than tripled this year’s growth forecast to 1.75 percent from 0.5 percent and strongly hinted at more rate hikes. … On Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 2.1 percent to close above the 10,000 mark for the first time in 2 weeks, while the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 1.9 percent. … Better-than-expected weekly jobless claims figures Thursday stoked speculation that the payrolls numbers at 8:30 am EST may be better than expected. Dartline forecast a fall of 145,000 during October, while the unemployment rate is expected to tick up further to, or just below, 10 percent. Though sizable, the expected job losses are far lower than the 741,000 drop recorded in January, the low point in the U.S. jobs cycle. Indeed, the jobs data whatever the number will be given a positive spin to push stocks higher. … Crude prices rose as the stock market rally boosted oil investors’ appetite for risk. Benchmark crude for December delivery was up 55 cents to $80.17 a barrel; the contract fell 78 cents overnight. Gold rose $4.3, or about 0.4 percent, to $1,093.6 an ounce. The dollar slipped 0.3 percent to 90.50 yen, while the euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.4899. Currency traders will be keeping a close eye on developments in St. Andrews, Scotland, where the finance ministers of the Group of 20 rich and developing countries are meeting. Though some ministers may voice concerns about the dollar’s continuing fall in value, analysts do not expect to see an explicit reference to currency valuations in the communique that follows the meeting. With too many competing views, expect much of the focus of the meeting to be on crisis exit strategies as opposed to foreign exchange. … In the near term 1095 – 1112  range remains first test to higher values for Standard & Poor’s 500 index. Continue to use 1166.36 as primary mid-term resistance and support at 1025.19.  Trade both sides of market, taking profits, reducing laggards and remain committed, but defensive. An end of year rally is a distinct possibility but what concerns traders is unemployment and the performance of the retail sector as we head towards Christmas.