March 9, 2010, 4:00 pm EST — Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed up 1.93 to 1140.43, as momentum from big banks that were damaged by the credit crisis and the recession are pointing to show major profits going forward.Even with “tricky accounting” look for almost zero interest rates to peculate to the bottom line. ADD HOPE TO THE EQUATION: The most likely smoke: job growth. Traders need to see a Labor Department report that says employers are creating more jobs than they’re cutting. Besides jobs, investors need to see more strength in the housing market. Traders have been tolerant of recent declines in home sales, but if those numbers don’t pick up, the market is likely to become uneasy. … First-quarter earnings reports that will be issued next month will show continued sales growth. Companies’ results for the last three months of 2009 were better than expected and the trend will continue. The BIG SPIN: Look for two months of back-to-back gains in job growth and for the unemployment rate to fall below 9 percent to feel more comfortable about the pace of recovery. Unemployment stands at 9.7 percent. Don’t bet the farm on the HIGH FREQUENCY NOICE, but play the action such sounds create.…
Underreported: The Energy Department on Tuesday said it still expects pump prices to climb past $3 per gallon as more motorists hit the road in the spring and summer driving seasons. In its monthly short-term energy outlook report, the Energy Information Administration said that for the full year it sees a national average price of $2.84 per gallon, up from $2.35 per gallon in 2009. Oil prices should average above $80 per barrel this spring, rising to an average of about $82 per barrel by the end of the year and to $85 per barrel by the end of 2011, the report said. A more optimistic view of global economic growth prompted the EIA to boost its 2010 forecast for oil consumption growth to 1.5 million barrels per day from last month’s prediction of 1.2 million barrels per day. EIA predicted that most of the economic growth should come from the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East. EIA’s outlook for residential electricity prices stayed about the same from last month, at an annual average of 11.5 cents per kilowatthour for this year, rising to 11.6 cents per kilowatthour in 2011. BAD NEWS — it would gave Helicopter Bernanke an excuse to raise interest rates to maintain the appearance of containing inflation.