Dartline™ … Closing Thoughts.

March 10, 2010, 4:00 pm EST — The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed up 5.16 to 1145.61, as benchmark crude for April delivery rose 60 cents to settle at $82.09 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Energy Information Administration said crude inventories grew last week by 1.4 million barrels to 343 million barrels. Analysts expected a build of 2.1 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. The lower build raised hopes that demand might be picking up, although there’s still a lot of oil on hand. “There was nothing inherent in the report to justify buying up to $83 per barrel,” said oil analyst and trader Stephen Schork. He cautioned against focusing on one week of data which “doesn’t mask the fact that we have seen enormous builds and smaller draws in the weeks prior to this.”  Meanwhile OPEC said world oil demand should grow by 900,000 barrels per day this year, an upward revision from last month’s forecast. OPEC said its forecast depends on a sustained global economic rebound, particularly in the U.S. While oil prices have risen about 17 percent since early last month, crude demand in the U.S., the world’s largest consumer of oil, has remained sluggish. “We really have to look overseas for growth,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. “Oil demand is increasing in the usual suspects like China and India, but it’s also increasing throughout the Arabian Gulf and in Africa.” This means higher gasoline prices for U.S. consumers, he added. Retail gasoline prices climbed again on Wednesday. The nationwide average rose 0.9 cents to $2.768 per gallon, according to AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. Prices have risen 11.6 cents in the last month and are now 82.7 cents higher than levels of a year ago. … The dollar edged down slightly against the euro in afternoon trading. A weaker dollar makes crude cheaper for investors holding foreign currencies.

— Underreported: Unemployment rose in 30 states in January, the Labor Department said today, evidence that jobs remain scarce in most regions of the country. The data is slightly better than December, when 43 states reported higher unemployment rates, but worse than November, when rates fell in most states. Still, five states reported record-high joblessness in January: California, at 12.5 percent; South Carolina, 12.6 percent; Florida, 11.9 percent; North Carolina, 11.1 percent; and Georgia, 10.4 percent. Michigan’s unemployment rate is still the nation’s highest, at 14.3 percent, followed by Nevada, with 13 percent and Rhode Island at 12.7 percent. South Carolina and California round out the top five. There were limited signs of job creation. Thirty-one states added jobs in January, up from only 11 in the previous month. But the job gains weren’t enough, in many cases, to lower the unemployment rate. For example, California reported the largest job gains, of 32,500, though its unemployment rate also rose. Illinois, New York, Washington state and Minnesota reported the next highest totals of new jobs. However, when drilling down into the numbers, the gains were bogus or government generated due to the census polling. The lowest unemployment rates are still found in upper Plains states, with North Dakota’s jobless rate of 4.2 percent the lowest in the nation. Nebraska and South Dakota had the next lowest rates, at 4.6 percent and 4.8 percent, respectively. In January, the national unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent from 10 percent the previous month. Last week, the Labor Department said the national rate was unchanged in February at 9.7 percent, while the pundits claimed that the slight improvement is only the beginning. Dartline is still questioning the data: How are new jobs going to be created when the only plus gains in the last 10-years were small businesses and the real estate construction sector? Meanwhile, state unemployment data for February won’t be released until later this month. Should be an interesting read.

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