DARTLINE INVESTOR

August 30, 2010, 4:00 pm EDT …  Closing Thoughts — The Standard and Poor’s 500 index closed down 15.68 to 1048.91, as very low volume and lack of anything caused stocks to drift lower. A minor report showed personal income rose less than expected in July, adding to a slowdown in growth during the second half of the year. However, personal spending added 0.4 percent in July, the biggest jump in four months. Meanwhile, investors focused on employment data. Signs of a slowdown in growth has plagued the market for more than a month. Investors are unsure if companies will be able to keep up strong earnings growth if the recovery runs out of steam or falls back into recession. And consumers aren’t likely to spend more until there are clear and regular signs of hiring. … The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 2.55 percent from 2.65 percent late Friday. Its yield is often used to set interest rates on mortgages and other consumer loans. … The Institute for Supply Management releases its monthly manufacturing survey Wednesday, which has an employment component to it. Payroll company ADP also releases its data on private jobs growth Wednesday. The Labor Department releases its weekly report on unemployment claims Thursday. New claims fell last week, but remain at elevated levels, which suggests that employers are not adding new workers. The key indicator would be new firing and when it happens the markets will materially decline. Dartline BTD should be ahead of the curve on that issue because of its SPM+Game Theory PRO matrix. Stay posted — we’ll report any changes in the three dedicated filters that assesses data on the subject.

August 30, 2010, 7:00 am EDT … The Standard and Poor’s 500 index futures down 0.50 to 1063.20, as oil prices below $75 a barrel Monday in Asia. Sellers controlled the stock market in recent sessions and, as a result, sent the S&P 500 lower in five of the six sessions leading up to Friday for a cumulative loss of more than 4%. As suggested by Dartline BTD, the decline prompted an oversold situation to cause shorts to cover positions. Low volume, however, made it easy for stock manipulators to control direction — more of the same for a holiday week. … The major indices closed the week with only modest declines after Helicopter Bernanke fueled a large rally on Friday, helping to offset some of the growing concerns regarding the pace of the economic recovery. The S&P 500 fell to a loss of as much as 2.3% this week before recovering to just a 0.7% decline. Only three of the 10 sectors gained, led by utilities (+2.0%). On the downside, the tech sector was the main laggard with a loss of 2.1%. Stocks rallied 1.7% Friday after Bernanke said that he expects a pickup in growth in 2011 [no data to support the noise] , adding that the Fed is ready to use “unconventional measures if it proves necessary, especially if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly.” Wow!. Maybe he’s going to start printing a new kind of US dollars? The news sparked a sell off in Treasuries. … Maintain 1024.20 in the S&P 500 index as support and resistance at 1071.19. Remain defensive, trade the tape and don’t embrace the Bernanke noise as fact.

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Check the recent earnings plays — all transparent and   posted yesterday — so game or posting after the fact.

Check out how SPM+Game Theory PRO set the rating and exit point for NZ –

NZ

Sell

15.12

2010-Aug-25 14:27:27

19.00

2010-Aug-27 09:57:48

3.88

^

NZ had an exit point of $19.00 when the stock was $15.12. If you are capable of doing that you don’t need BEAT THE DART. That’s just one. Check the archives and  decide for yourself.

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^

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9:35 am to 10:21 am — note: TIF was a ProDay Trades Short and Cover – net gain of  $2.03.

RGS

Cover

17.19

2010-Aug-25 14:39:40

16.79

2010-Aug-27 10:21:23

0.40

TIF

Cover

42.19

2010-Aug-27 09:35:25

40.16

2010-Aug-27 10:19:44

2.03

JCG	Cover		33.28	2010-Aug-26 10:47:23	30.84	2010-Aug-27 10:11:50	2.44
NZ	Sell		15.12	2010-Aug-25 14:27:27	19.00	2010-Aug-27 09:57:48	3.88
OVTI	Sell		21.97	2010-Aug-25 14:34:04	23.19	2010-Aug-27 09:56:39	1.22

TIF

Sell

42.22

2010-Aug-26 15:22:59

42.34

2010-Aug-27 09:33:14

0.12

8:15 am … NZ – Retain Long Position: Change exit point to $18.10 from $17.00.

8:00 am … TIF- Retain Long Position: Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $0.55 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.53; revenues rose 9.2% year/year to $668.8 mln vs the $690.2 mln consensus (+8% FX adj. with comps +5%); with solid growth in most regions. A higher operating margin also contributed to a 19% increase in net earnings. Co raises guidance for FY11, sees EPS of $2.60-2.65, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $2.61 Thomson Reuters consensus, up from $2.55-2.60; reaffrims FY11 revs +11% to ~$3.008 bln vs. $3.03 bln Thomson Reuters consensus.

7:55 am … OVTI – Retain Long Position: Other View: Oppenheimer raises their OVTI tgt to $27 from $23 saying the fundamental bull case for OmniVision is playing out in spades. The company is winning massive share in the high-growth, high-value smartphone market; it is growing its ASP; and it is expanding gross margin at a rate that’s making even the bulls blush. Still, thanks to a slowdown in the global PC supply chain, which caused OmniVision’s notebook webcam business to hit a snag the firm says, F1Q11 was less than perfect. Normally, confirmation of a company’s competitive leadership, together with a sizable upward revision to forward estimates, would count more to investors than a fleeting hiccup. However firm says in a market where hiccups speak louder than fundamentals, who knows? The firm says buy buy buy on any weakness.

7:30 am … JCG -Retain Short Position: Other Views:

• J. Crew (JCG 33.43) target lowered to $40 from $55 at Weeden after a solid quarter was overshadowed by guidance. Firm noted While it sounds as if the slowdown has been more recent, CEO Drexler said JCG customers are nervous about the economy, deferring purchases, waiting for promotions, and comparison shopping. Given this store feedback, management felt it more prudent to incorporate a more cautious approach to guidance of flat comps for Q3 suggesting flat to modestly negative comps in Q4. Based on current trends and where they expect the stock to open, the bar appears to have been adequately reset for the stock. Firm would use the pullback as an opportunity to accumulate shares.
• J. Crew (JCG 33.43) target lowered to $37 from $41 at Janney Mntgmy Scott after the Q210 the beat took the backseat to drastically lowered guidance for 2H10. They believe that with the after-market sell-off seen following the release and the lowered bar that should follow, long-term investors stand to benefit from returning to the name as one of the few remaining unit growth stories with a strong merchant guiding the company. Their 12-month fair value target goes to $37.00 from $41.00, which is based on a 15% three-year growth rate times their FY11 EPS estimate of $2.

… from August 26, 2010.

5:11 pm … JCG – After Hours: 31.25 2.18 (6.52%) 5:11PM EDT

5:08 pm … NZ – After Hours: 17.20 2.28 (15.28%) 5:08PM EDT

4:30 pm … OVTI – Retain Long Position: Reports Q1 (Jul) earnings of $0.39 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.35; revenues rose 82.9% year/year to $193.1 mln vs the $202.6 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.46-0.59, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.40 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees Q2 revs of $220-240 mln vs. $219.90 mln Thomson Reuters consensus.

4:05 pm … JCG – Retain Short Position: Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $0.53 per share, $0.07 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.46; revenues rose 14.0% year/year to $407.5 mln vs the $403.3 mln consensus; comps -5%; Q2 gross margin of 44.6%% vs the 44.0% consensus Co issues downside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.55-0.60 vs. $0.71 Thomson Reuters consensus. Co lowers guidance for FY11, sees EPS of $2.25-2.35, including a $0.03 benefit from forfeited share-based awards, vs. $2.46 Thomson Reuters consensus, down from $2.35-2.45 previously.

4:01 pm …. NX – Retain Long Position: Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $0.09 per share, $0.03 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.06; revenues rose 45.3% year/year to $63.8 mln vs the $53.9 mln consensus. Co says ” … Our performance in the first half of the fiscal year reflected strength in our business across all verticals, and we expect to see this continue. As a result, we are increasing our guidance for the full fiscal year to approximately 30% annual revenue growth. We will continue to invest across the organization during the second half of the year and expect operating margin improvement year over year.”

August 27, 2010, 4:00 pm EDT … Closing Thoughts — The Standard and Poor’s 500 index closed up 17.37 to 1064.59 as shorts got crushed.

Stocksmirf called it ….

• August 25, 2010, 4:00 pm EDT … Closing Thoughts — The Standard and Poor’s 500 index closed up 3.46 to 1055.33, and as predicted this morning — “Even as the global markets remain weak for most of August, watch for stock manipulation to temporarily improve stock values. With low volume and shorts jumping in with both feet, it would be easy to create a buying wave and trap the shorts. Watch what happens at current support – 1050.47 in the S&P 500 index - any indication of strength would be the tip off to cover shorts and step back. Remember: “The market is rigged and everybody knows it.”

Add Helicopter Bernanke smoke and you got a questionable advance. No problem — Dartline DTB anticipated the move and added accordingly. Bernanke told central bankers at a conference in Big Hole, Wyoming, the recovery has weakened more than expected and the central bank was ready to take further steps if needed to spur the recovery. … On a technical note: The S&P 500 index at 1,040 remains a key technical level that caused traders to jump in. What it really  means requires a further test with volume.

August 27, 2010, 7:00 am EDT … The Standard and Poor’s 500 index futures are up 3.00 to 1047.20, as Helicopter Bernanke will address a symposium of global policymakers at Jackson Hole later in the day. Dartline BTD expects a positive spin that the Fed “will do whatever is necessary to insure economic growth.” Indeed, he will keep the door open to such a move, and “not to worry.” Buy the noise and trade accordingly. … Meanwhile, world markets have been rattled in recent weeks by signs world growth is losing momentum. Sentiment has been dampened by expectations the United States will revise down economic growth for the April-June quarter from an annual pace of 2.4 percent announced earlier. Britain’s FTSE 100 stock index was down 0.4 percent at 5,133.51, France’s CAC-40 shed 0.6 percent to 3,453.39 and Germany’s DAX fell 0.4 percent to 5,889.88. Asian indexes were mostly lower at the close and Wall Street looked set to open little changed — Dow industrial average futures were up 0.1 percent at 9,978.00 and Standard & Poor’s 500 futures were up 0.1 percent at 1,046.10. … Chinese investors resumed buying to boost the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index by 0.3 percent to 2,610.74. But the gains were capped by mixed earnings from major companies and uncertainty over whether the government will loosen tight credit policies as the economy slows. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.1 percent to 20,597.35 while South Korea’s Kospi dropped less than 0.1 percent. But shares in most other markets were higher, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3 percent and Taiwan’s benchmark adding 0.4 percent. … In currencies, the dollar rose to 84.73 yen from 84.28 yen in New York late Thursday. The euro rose to $1.2717 from $1.2702. … Use 1024.20 in the S&P 500 index as support and change resistance to 1071.19. Remain defensive, especially with Bernanke noise — remember he’s Obama Nation’s chief cheerleader.

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5:11 pm … JCG – After Hours: 31.25 2.18 (6.52%) 5:11PM EDT

5:08 pm … NZ – After Hours: 17.20 2.28 (15.28%) 5:08PM EDT

4:30 pm … OVTI – Retain Long Position: Reports Q1 (Jul) earnings of $0.39 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.35; revenues rose 82.9% year/year to $193.1 mln vs the $202.6 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.46-0.59, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.40 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees Q2 revs of $220-240 mln vs. $219.90 mln Thomson Reuters consensus.

4:05 pm … JCG – Retain Short Position: Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $0.53 per share, $0.07 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.46; revenues rose 14.0% year/year to $407.5 mln vs the $403.3 mln consensus; comps -5%; Q2 gross margin of 44.6%% vs the 44.0% consensus Co issues downside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.55-0.60 vs. $0.71 Thomson Reuters consensus. Co lowers guidance for FY11, sees EPS of $2.25-2.35, including a $0.03 benefit from forfeited share-based awards, vs. $2.46 Thomson Reuters consensus, down from $2.35-2.45 previously.

4:01 pm …. NX – Retain Long Position: Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $0.09 per share, $0.03 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.06; revenues rose 45.3% year/year to $63.8 mln vs the $53.9 mln consensus. Co says ” … Our performance in the first half of the fiscal year reflected strength in our business across all verticals, and we expect to see this continue. As a result, we are increasing our guidance for the full fiscal year to approximately 30% annual revenue growth. We will continue to invest across the organization during the second half of the year and expect operating margin improvement year over year.”

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